By / Kathleen Collins
SMACNA Legislative Consultant
To quote an old song – “the times they are a changing” – and that is certainly true on the state legislative front. The Legislature left Olympia in March with a well-funded budget that was almost 20 percent higher than the previous biennium. In the last few days of session, the Legislature began to grasp the potential for disruption from COVID-19 and reduced some planned expenditures, passed $200 million in aid and put $3 billion in reserves. As it turns out, that won’t be enough.
As the economy shut down, so did the state’s revenue. In June the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council estimated $4.5 billion dollar in reduced revenues for the second year of this biennium and $4.3 billion for next biennium. Dr. Stephen Lerch, the Executive Director and Chief Economist for the Council, said the state is in a recession. How fast the state can move out of the recession is filled with unknowns, but it likely won’t be fast.
Special session
The Governor and legislative leaders agree that they will need a special session before next January to rebalance the budget. The question is what will they do? Regarding the current budget, the Republican budget leaders say it is possible to use the $3 billion reserve and trim $1.5 billion from newly funded programs to fix the current budget imbalance. They also assert that the current budget has programs that can be reduced without harming critical services. The Democrats are saying they can’t support an “all cuts” budget and want to at least consider new revenue, especially for new programs that will be needed to help economic recovery. And some legislators are holding out hope for more COVID money from the federal government.
Potential for taxes
Even before the pandemic there was a push for more taxes, and recently taxes that target high income earners and businesses. In the waning days of the 2019 session, the Democrat majority passed $2 billion in taxes largely for new education and social programs. Although the capital gains tax was desired by many Democrats, they settled on increases to the B&O and real estate excise tax on commercial transactions.
Looking to either a special session, or more likely the 2021 session, taxes will be part of the discussion and possible budget solution. Former Speaker Frank Chopp has already rolled out a proposed $2 billion-dollar tax package relying on a “head tax” on employees earning $500,000 or more along with a more traditional capital gains tax. Last session King County leaders and many businesses supported a high-income employee head tax that did not make it out of committee. They would have used the money for housing and social services. More recently two different high-income business and head tax proposal are under possible consideration by the Seattle City Council, again with different thresholds. These proposals would only impact Seattle businesses. Rep. Chopp’s proposal would be statewide.
What we can expect
With most of the business sector feeling the fiscal stresses of the pandemic, taxing either small business or consumers will be meet with stiff opposition. Proposals that would include increase sales tax or property tax or increase the B&O on smaller businesses are likely off the table. However, tax proposals targeting larger businesses are certain to emerge. Besides Rep. Chopp’s proposal, we could see a second try for a high earner tax for King County businesses. The devil is in the detail with these types of tax proposals. SMACNA opposed the King County tax last session. The cost was not the only concern. The tax would have been extremely difficult for contractors to track work done in specific locations so those cities would get the tax benefit and it included several other unfair and unworkable features.
Besides tax and budget proposals, we expect to see requests to provide more coverage for COVID related employee benefits. There may be efforts to expand government subsidized childcare, especially if schools do not fully re-open. SMACNA will keep you informed on these issues and all of the various budget and tax proposals that emerge as the Legislature wrestles with the changing times and fiscal consequences of the pandemic.▪
